U.S. Travel Forecast

Travel Forecast Summary:

The Fall 2026 U.S. Travel Forecast projects a 0.7% decline in inflation-adjusted travel spending in 2026, but a return to growth in 2027 and beyond. Americans are expected to take a record 2.44 billion domestic trips in 2026, but spending growth—led by gasoline and airfares—is expected to outpace trip growth. Spending growth is forecast to return in 2027 at 2.3% and accelerate to about 3% a year from 2028 through 2030 as price pressures ease. Resilient domestic demand in 2026 is partially offset by a second consecutive decline in international inbound travel, with foreign visitor recovery to 2019 levels pushed further into the future.

Travel remains a powerful driver of the U.S. economy. Total travel spending is forecast to fall from $1.36 trillion in 2025 to $1.35 trillion in 2026 before rising to $1.38 trillion in 2027 (inflation-adjusted). Domestic travel accounts for 88% of the total. At $1.19 trillion, it remains just below 2019 inflation-adjusted levels, with a full return expected in 2027. International inbound travel spending is projected to fall 6.3% to $163 billion in 2026, following a 2.0% decline in 2025.

The forecast is based on Tourism Economics’ travel forecasting model, with spending figures presented in inflation-adjusted 2025 dollars for consistency.

Data Insights:

Domestic Leisure Travel

• Following 2.0% growth in 2025, domestic leisure travel spending is expected to remain essentially flat in 2026, rising 0.1% to $902 billion. Growth is forecast to resume at 2.1% in 2027.
• Domestic leisure travel is the only segment with spending above its 2019 inflation-adjusted level.
• Travel continues to be prioritized by Americans, but spending growth is being driven disproportionately by higher-income households, supported by record household wealth. Lower- and middle-income household spending has been resilient, but travel spending faces pressure from higher gas prices and economic uncertainty.
• Higher costs are changing how Americans travel rather than whether they travel. Across all domestic travel, air trips are expected to decline 0.8% in 2026, while trips by car and other modes rise 1.9%. Overnight trips are still expected to grow 1.9%.

International Inbound Travel

• International inbound travel spending fell 2.0% in 2025 to $174 billion and is forecast to decline a further 6.3% to $163 billion in 2026, leaving spending 25% below 2019 levels (inflation-adjusted). Growth is projected to resume in 2027 at 2.8% and strengthen from 2028.
• Inbound international visits fell 5.5% in 2025 to 68.3 million and are forecast to decline a further 0.7% to 67.8 million in 2026. Visits are not expected to return to the 2019 level of 79 million until 2030, a year later than previously forecast.
• The 2026 decline is uneven across markets. Visits from Mexico are forecast to grow a robust 10.3%, while visits from Canada are forecast to fall a further 3.3% after a 21% decline in 2025. Overseas visits are expected to fall 5.2%. As a result, inbound spending is projected to decline more sharply than visits.
• Any boost in inbound arrivals driven by the 2026 World Cup was insufficient to offset the broader decline in visitors for the year.
• The United States continues to lose share of the global travel market. Its share of global long-haul arrivals fell from 10.3% in 2019 to 7.7% in 2026 and is forecast to slide to 7.1% by 2030, even as global long-haul travel continues to grow.

Business and Group Travel

• Business travel spending grew 1.1% to $317 billion in 2025 and is expected to hold essentially flat in 2026 (−0.1%, inflation-adjusted) at $316 billion.
• Business travel is now expected to outpace leisure travel through 2030, supported by strong corporate profits and rising business investment, including in artificial intelligence.
• Domestic group travel is forecast to be the strongest business segment in 2026, growing 1.8% to $118 billion, as meeting planners report greater optimism and expect to hold more meetings this year. Domestic transient (individual) business travel is expected to dip 0.7%.
• Domestic business trip volumes are expected to return to 2019 levels in 2028.

Risks to the Forecast Are Elevated

• Energy prices are expected to remain elevated into 2027, weighing on lower- and middle-income households.
• Travel prices are a key source of forecast uncertainty. The Travel Price Index, which tracks the cost of travel-related goods and services, is forecast to rise 7.2% in 2026, more than double overall consumer inflation of 3.4%.
• A continued hawkish monetary policy stance, with interest rates held higher for longer, could tighten financial conditions and restrain discretionary spending.
• Stock market wealth is supporting spending by higher-income households. A market correction, including a pullback in AI investment, could turn that support into a drag on both leisure and business travel.
• Further deterioration in consumer sentiment, which is currently near record lows, could undermine discretionary travel spending that has so far held up.
• The pace of international inbound recovery remains sensitive to policy conditions and geopolitical stability, including the conflict in the Middle East. Inbound international visits remain exposed to negative sentiment toward the United States in key source markets, tariffs, entry barriers (such as visa fees and wait times, visa bonds, and other changes to entry requirements) and the lapse in Brand USA funding.

To complement the travel forecast table, U.S. Travel has released an accompanying slide deck, which provides context and details for the latest projections. This document, which appears on the right under “downloads,” is available exclusively to U.S. Travel members.