U.S. Travel Forecast

Travel Forecast Summary:

The Spring 2026 U.S. Travel update projects travel spending growth at low but positive rates, continuing the trend seen in late 2025 and early 2026. Bolstered by domestic travel, spending is expected to grow 1% (inflation-adjusted) in 2026, accelerating to 3% growth in 2027 and 2028. Resilient domestic demand is partially offset by ongoing economic pressures, including inflation and geopolitical uncertainty.

Travel’s footprint remains massive, and it is an essential part of the U.S. economy. Total travel spending is forecast to reach $1.37 trillion in 2026 and $1.42 trillion in 2027 (inflation-adjusted). Domestic travel accounts for 87% of the total and, at $1.20 trillion, has returned to 2019 inflation-adjusted levels. International inbound travel is projected to rebound from a 2.4% decline in 2025 to 1.6% growth, reaching $178 billion in spending, supported by increased travel tied to the World Cup.

This update extends the forecast horizon through 2030, offering greater visibility into longer-term trends. All data is driven by Tourism Economics’ travel forecasting model and presented in 2025 inflation-adjusted dollars for consistency.

Data Insights:

Domestic Leisure Travel

• Following 2.1% growth in 2025, domestic leisure travel spending continues to expand, rising 0.9% to $909 billion in 2026 and growing more quickly in 2027 and beyond.
• Domestic leisure travel is the only vertical where total spending is greater than 2019 levels (inflation-adjusted).
• Growth in 2026 is expected to be impacted by increased inflation in travel and other goods and services. Travel continues to be prioritized by Americans, but spending is being driven by higher-income households.
• Travelers are expected to shift toward shorter-duration and lower-cost trips, including regional and drive markets, in response to greater costs.

International Inbound Travel

• International inbound travel spending fell 2.4% in 2025 to $175 billion but is expected to rebound 1.6% to $178 billion in 2026. That figure is still 18% below 2019 levels (inflation-adjusted). Growth is projected to accelerate in 2027 and beyond.
• Inbound international visits declined 5.5% by volume in 2025 to 68.3 million, driven primarily by reduced visits from Canada. Inbound visits are expected to grow 3.4% to 70.6 million in 2026, driven by leisure travel and supported by major global events, including the World Cup in 2026 and Summer Olympics in 2028. A return to the level of 2019 (79 million visits) is not expected until 2029.
• The recovery in 2026 is expected to be uneven across markets. Visits from Canada are projected to increase after a 21% volume decline in 2025.
• The pace of international inbound travel recovery remains sensitive to policy conditions, global sentiment and geopolitical stability.

Business and Group Travel 

• Business travel grew 1.1% to $317 billion in 2025 and is forecast to grow 0.7% in 2026 (in real terms) to $319 billion.
• Growth in business travel is expected to remain below leisure travel growth in the near term, before improving from 2027 onward as broader economic conditions stabilize and corporate travel budgets recover.
• Demand is supported by projected stabilization of corporate budgets, and continued prioritization of in-person engagement.
• Domestic group travel is forecast to grow more rapidly than business travel overall at 1.4% in 2026 to $118 billion.

Risks to the Forecast Are Elevated

• Consumer uncertainty is high as energy prices have the potential to be elevated for an extended duration.
• Prolonged conflict in the Middle East can affect both travel demand and energy prices.
• Consumer sentiment and confidence indicators have been depressed for an extended period even as domestic travel spending has been sustained.
• Inbound international visits remain exposed to potential further increases in visa fees, extended wait times for visa applications and renewals, and negative sentiment toward the United States in key source markets.

To complement the travel forecast table, U.S. Travel has released an accompanying slide deck, which provides context and details for the latest projections. This document, which appears on the right under "downloads," is available exclusively to U.S. Travel members.