Travel Forecast

The U.S. Travel Winter 2025 Forecast projects travel expenditure in the U.S. will continue to grow at normalized rates, driven by resilient consumer spending, sustained business investment and major events promoting international visits. 

The forecast data is driven by Tourism Economics' travel forecasting model.  

Looking ahead: For 2025, total U.S. Travel spending is projected to grow 3.9% to $1.35 trillion, with additional growth to $1.46 trillion (inflation-adjusted) by 2028. 

Deeper Insights: 

— Continued consumer strength in 2024 resulted in record numbers of domestic air travelers. While spending grew at a lower rate than the number of trips, domestic leisure travel is forecast to increase by 3.9% and reach more than $1 trillion in 2025, equaling 2019 levels (inflation-adjusted). Air travel volumes are expected to continue growing into 2026 and beyond.

— A mega-decade of events could drive record visitation to the U.S. The FIFA 2026 World Cup, America’s 250th Anniversary, the 2028 Summer Olympics in Los Angeles, the Men’s and Women’s Rugby World Cups in 2031 and 2033 and the 2034 Winter Games in Salt Lake City have the potential to bring more visits than ever. U.S. Travel forecasts 8.8% growth for inbound international visits in 2025 and 8.9% growth in 2026.

— Growth in international visits to the United States remains an important factor in re-establishing travel as one of our most important exports, with more than $200 billion in international spending projected for 2025.

— Challenges include reduced visits from important regions including Asia, the risk of geopolitical tensions, policies that complicate and dissuade potential U.S. visitation and prolonged visa wait times for visitors from significant inbound markets.

— The recovery for business travel is slower than other verticals, but healthy profit margins for companies and continued corporate investment bode well for higher rates of growth. U.S. Travel forecasts 4.0% growth in business travel spending for 2025, reaching $316 billion. 

— Risks remain for business travel, including corporate cost-cutting initiatives that may reduce travel or increase reliance on virtual meetings. Full recovery of business travel spending to pre-pandemic levels is not expected until after 2028. 

To complement the travel forecast table, U.S. Travel has released an accompanying slide deck, which provides context for the latest projections. This document, which appears on the right under "downloads," is available exclusively to U.S. Travel members.