Study: Millions of Americans Could Be Affected by REAL ID Deadline in 2020

Almost three out of four Americans are unprepared for the October 1, 2020 deadline for full implementation of REAL ID, and millions could be prevented from boarding a plane because they do not have the required identification, according to a study commissioned by the U.S. Travel Association.

Next October 1, the U.S. Department of Homeland Security will implement the last phase of enforcement of the REAL ID Act—the law originally passed in 2005 which will require travelers to present a REAL ID-compliant driver’s license or other approved form of identification to board a flight.

According to the survey conducted for U.S. Travel by Longwoods International, a market research consultancy, 72% of Americans either do not have a REAL ID-compliant driver’s license or are unsure if they do.

The study also revealed a significant REAL ID awareness issue, with more than half of Americans (57%) saying they did not know about the upcoming deadline.

Many Americans also lack the alternatives to REAL ID-compliant, state-issued driver’s licenses—such as a U.S. passport. 39% of Americans say they do not have any form of identification that will be accepted starting October 1, 2020.

This equates to an estimated 99 million Americans that may not currently hold the proper identification to board an airplane starting next October.

Based on this data, U.S. Travel economists estimated the potential economic impact of REAL ID implementation: if REAL ID standards were to be fully enforced immediately, at least 78,500 air travelers could be turned away at TSA checkpoints on the first day, costing the U.S. economy $40.3 million in lost travel-related spending.

If that trend sustained for a full week, the figures could grow to more than half a million (549,500) air travelers prevented from boarding planes and $282 million in lost travel spending.

“Our survey gave us the answer we didn’t want to hear: that there is alarming lack of awareness and preparedness a short year out from REAL ID going into full effect,” said U.S. Travel Association President and CEO Roger Dow. “This is significant not only because it will inconvenience travelers and create confusion at U.S. airports—it could do significant damage to our nation’s economy.

“That’s why the U.S. Travel Association has launched a broad education effort alongside the full spectrum of public- and private-sector travel stakeholders: airports, federal government agencies, tourism offices, and the huge community of large and small businesses that depend on American travelers—we need all hands on deck to avert a big problem next October.”

The challenge, Dow noted, stems from all of the U.S. states and territories having individual—rather than concerted—processes for implementation of REAL ID standards.

The U.S. Travel Association is leading an initiative by private-sector travel stakeholders to better prepare the country for the October 1, 2020 REAL ID deadline. The association has developed a toolkit filled with resources for its membership and other allies to help educate Americans on what a REAL ID is, and is coordinating engagement with policymakers and government agencies to proactively address the awareness deficit pre-deadline.

U.S. Travel also released a series of policy recommendations to mitigate the challenges caused by REAL ID implementation:

1. Modernize the REAL ID statute: Amend the REAL ID Act to allow for mobile and web-based REAL ID applications and to permit TSA to accept mobile or digital REAL ID-compliant driver’s licenses, which will reduce DMV backlogs and increase checkpoint efficiency.
2. Designate registered traveler enrollment as an acceptable alternative: Utilize the existing security and identification features of trusted traveler programs, including TSA Precheck, to reduce the need for a REAL ID Act-compliant driver’s license at airport checkpoints.
3. Transition TSA checkpoints to automated identity verification: Accelerate the implementation of automated identity verification technology for passport holders and trusted travelers, which will strengthen security, improve checkpoint efficiency, and decrease the number of travelers that arrive at TSA checkpoints without accepted identifications.
4. Develop alternative screening procedures for travelers without accepted licenses: TSA should work with the private sector to develop procedures for clearing travelers that do not have a REAL ID or acceptable alternative after October 1, 2020. Turning away large numbers of travelers at the checkpoint is simply unacceptable.

For more information about REAL ID, additional findings from the study, policy recommendations, and other resources, click here.

Methodology for the study:

To help quantify the challenges posed by REAL ID implementation, the U.S. Travel Association commissioned Longwoods International, a market research consultancy, to conduct two surveys measuring the public’s understanding of REAL ID identifications and the October 1, 2020 enforcement deadline for commercial air travel.

The July 2019 survey was an online self-completion survey fielded July 9 through 12, 2019 using a national sample randomly drawn from Dynata’s consumer panel of 1,000 adults, ages 18 and over. The results were weighted at tabulation to correct for differences between the observed sample and the sample universe using the most recent Census targets for age, gender, income, household composition and region. The survey has a margin of error +/-3% at 95% confidence level.

The September 2019 survey was an online self-completion survey fielded September 4 through 6, 2019 using a national sample randomly drawn from Dynata’s consumer panel of 1,000 adults, ages 18 and over. The results were weighted at tabulation to correct for differences between the observed sample and the sample universe using the most recent Census targets for age, gender, income, household composition and region. The survey has a margin of error +/-3% at 95% confidence level.

Methodology for the Economic Impact Estimate:

Source: Data used in the calculation includes the survey conducted by Longwoods International, U.S. Travel's travel economic impact data, U.S. Travel’s travel volume estimates, and Bureau of Transportation Statistics air passenger data.

The weekly loss in spending is calculated to reflect the first day of the deadline for air travelers:

• Estimate excludes: 
  • Those travelers who have REAL ID driver's licenses or military IDs
  • Those who have passports and know the deadline or carry passport always
• Estimate includes: 
  • Those who have passports but do not know about the deadline and do not carry their passports
  • Those who do not have any REAL ID-compliant document to board the flight